[Guest Post] Nabisco Cup Qualification Scenarios

So in deference to the weather, the $150 train ticket, and the fact that the weather wreaked hell on my ankle, I chose to not attend yesterday’s Nabisco Cup game up at Alwin Stadium in Nagano.  For what it’s worth, FC Tokyo blew a lead late in the game to settle for a 1-1 tie with Shimizu S-Pulse.  Shimizu has now secured a playoff berth, which should make my colleagues over at S-Pulse UK Ultras pretty happy.

Anyway, got this post from my stateside buddy, Vermont local soccer expert, and stat wonk Lantis, which pretty much sums up everything you want to know about who’s in, who’s out, and who’s on the bubble in the Nabisco Cup.

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Any team with at least five points currently has at least a chance at moving on to the quarterfinals, with an absolute minimum threshold of eight points at the end of the group stage to advance.  There are probably a few outside chance scenarios I’ve missed in this, but they’re horribly unlikely to occur.

Group A:

Nagoya Grampus have clinched a quarterfinal berth and can clinch a group win with a win or draw, or a Vissel Kobe loss or draw.  If Grampus loses and Kobe wins, if the combined goal differential is less than five, Grampus still wins the group.

Vissel Kobe are in the lead for a wildcard slot and can clinch it with a win.  They also have a chance at winning the group with a win and a Grampus loss by a combined six or more goals.

Kyoto Sanga can win a wildcard slot with a win, an FC Tokyo loss and an Oita Trinita loss, both with a combined goal differential of five or more goals, a Jubilo Iwata loss, a Kawasaki Frontale loss, and a Kashiwa Reysol loss to Consadole Sapporo win by fewer than six.  A loss or draw eliminates Kyoto from quarterfinal contention.

The Urawa Reds have been eliminated from quarterfinal contention.
Group B:

Shimizu S-Pulse have clinched a quarterfinal berth and can clinch a group win with a win or draw, or an FC Tokyo loss or draw.  If Shimizu loses and FC Tokyo wins, if the combined goal differential is less than six, Shimizu still wins the group.

FC Tokyo are currently in a tie for the second wildcard slot.  A win and a Shimizu loss by a combined six or more goals clinches a group win.  A win and a Visel Kobe loss or a win and an Oita Trinita loss or draw clinches a wildcard slot.  A draw, an Oita Trinita loss (or draw with a lower score than FC Tokyo’s game), a Kawasaki Frontale loss or draw, and a Kashiwa Reysol loss or draw also clinches a wildcard slot.  A loss really muddies things, requiring losing by no more than one goal, a Jubilo Iwata loss or draw, an Oita loss by more goals than FC Tokyo’s, a Frontale loss or draw, and a Kashiwa loss or draw to advance.

Jubilo Iwata can win a wildcard slot with a win, an FC Tokyo loss, and an Oita Trinita loss.  A draw, an FC Tokyo loss by more than two goals, an Oita Trinita loss by more than two goals, a Kawasaki Frontale loss or draw, and a Kashiwa Reysol loss or draw can also win a wildcard slot.  A loss eliminates Jubilo from quarterfinal contention.

Tokyo Verdy have been eliminated from quarterfinal contention.

Group C:

This one’s a mess; everybody still has at least a chance.

JEF United Ichihara Chiba can clinch a group win with a win, a draw, or a loss to Kawasaki Frontale by less than two and a Kashiwa Reysol loss, draw, or win by less than three.  If Chiba still loses the group title, they can win a wildcard slot with an FC Tokyo loss, an Oita Trinita loss, and a Jubilo Iwata loss or draw.

Kawasaki Frontale can win the group with a win over JEF United Ichihara Chiba by two or more goals, and a Kashiwa Reysol loss, draw, or win by less than three.  Kawasaki can win a wildcard with a win, losses by FC Tokyo and Oita Trinita (or draws and a win by four or more), a loss by Jubilo Iwata (or a Jubilo draw and a win by two or more), and a Kashiwa Reysol loss, draw, or win by a smaller or equal margin to Kawasaki’s win. A loss or draw eliminates Kawasaki from quarterfinal contention.

Kashiwa Reysol can win the group with a win by three or more, and a Kawasaki Frontale win by at least two less than Kashiwa’s win.  Kashiwa can win a wildcard with a win, losses by FC Tokyo and Oita Trinita (or draws and a win by five or more), a loss by Jubilo Iwata (or a Jubilo draw and a win by three or more), and a Kawasaki loss, draw, or win by a smaller margin than Kashiwa’s win.  A loss or draw eliminates Kashiwa from quarterfinal contention.

Consadole Sapporo can win a wildcard with a win by six or more, losses by FC Tokyo, Oita Trinita, and Jubilo Iwata, a Kawasaki Frontale loss or draw, and a Kyoto Sanga FC loss, draw, or win by fewer than five.  A loss or draw eliminates Sapporo from quarterfinal contention.
Group D:

Yokohama F-Marinos can clinch a group win with a win, an Oita Trinita loss, a draw and an Oita Trinita draw or loss, or a loss by less than two and an Oita Trinita draw or loss.  Yokohama can clinch a wildcard slot with a draw, losses or draws by FC Tokyo and Oita Trinita, and a Jubilo Iwata loss, draw, or win by fewer than four.  Yokohama can also win a wildcard slot with a loss, losses by FC Tokyo and Oita Trinita, a loss or draw by Jubilo Iwata, a loss, draw, or win by a combined GD of less than five by Kawasaki Frontale, and a loss, draw, or win by a combined GD of less than six by Kashiwa Reysol.

Oita Trinita can win the group with a win and a Yokohama F-Marinos loss or draw, or a draw and a Yokohama loss by two or more.  Oita can win a wildcard slot with a win and an FC Tokyo loss or draw, or a draw, an FC Tokyo loss (or draw with a lower score than Oita’s game), a Kawasaki Frontale loss or draw, and a Kashiwa Reysol loss or draw also clinches a wildcard slot.  Oita can still win a wildcard slot by losing by no more than one goal, a Jubilo Iwata loss or draw, an FC Tokyo loss by more goals than Oita’s, a Frontale loss or draw, and a Kashiwa loss or draw.

Albirex Niigata and Omiya Ardija have been eliminated from quarterfinal contention.

Personal predictions:
Group A Winner: Nagoya Grampus
Group B Winner: Shimizu S-Pulse
Group C Winner: JEF United Ichihara Chiba
Group D Winner: Oita Trinita
Wildcard winners: Vissel Kobe & FC Tokyo